Posted by
FND Borong
at
5:43 AM
The monetary value would be superior to the bullion value of the silver ounce by about 15%. This margin would allow a profit, called “seigniorage”, for the Central Bank. Since the coin would not have an engraved value, rises in the price of silver (which would tend to eliminate the seigniorage of the Central Bank) would be met with new, higher, Central Bank quotes for the monetary value of the coin.
The rises in the value of silver in the silver markets of the world would no longer cause the disappearance of the monetized silver ounce. As soon as a rise in the price of silver would begin to affect the seigniorage of the Central Bank, it would produce a new and higher quote.
In order for the silver coin to become money and cease to be a commodity, the last quote of the Central Bank would have to remain stable and not diminish if and when the price of silver were to fall, which of course it does from time to time. Granted such immunity from falls in the price of silver, the coin would become legal tender money and could be used for any commercial transaction.
Now we read that China is having problems with inflation of its money supply. We think that if China were to monetize a silver coin, its Central Bank would have an effective instrument to assist in dealing with inflation.
China used silver exclusively as money for many centuries and restoring it to circulation in China would seem appropriate for China, as it aspires to recover its former glory as the richest country in the world.
The hypothetical case of a monetized silver coin in China.
The first thing that strikes us as we consider a silver coin to be used as money in China is that given its enormous population a one-ounce coin would appear to be much too large.
Let us consider a smaller coin. In the case of silver coins with engraved values we have seen the case of Mexico, whose Central Bank attempted to retain a silver peso (with an engraved value) in circulation all the way up to 1967. The attempt required removing all previously minted and engraved silver coins from circulation and replacing them with new One Peso coins containing less silver.
What we are suggesting is radically different. Instead of replacing a One Peso coin with coins with progressively less silver content, we are simply, in the special case of China, “cutting up” a one ounce pure silver coin into smaller pieces.
For the purpose of silver in circulation in China, we suggest a small coin, about the size of an American dime, with a pure silver content of 1/10 oz., alloyed with 10% copper to give a fineness of .900. In metric terms, the coin would have a gross weight of 3.45 grams and a pure silver content of 3.11 grams.
The determination of the monetary value of the 1/10 oz coin in Yuan
Today, November 24, 2010, the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan is 6.6489 Yuan per dollar, and silver is traded at $27.59 oz.
At these values, the value of silver bullion per ounce, in Yuan, is 6.6489 x $27.59 = 183.44 Yuan per ounce.
The value of silver in a 1/10 coin would be 183.44 / 10 = 18.34 Yuan.
Add to 18.34 Yuan, the cost of minting, which we shall estimate at 10 cents per coin = .67 Yuan for minting costs. Then 18.34 + .67 = 19.01 Yuan.
19.01 Yuan x 1.1 to provide a seigniorage profit to the Chinese Central Bank = 20.91 Yuan.
We round up the Yuan figure of 20.91, to 25 Yuan as the initial official quoted legal tender value of the small 1/10 oz coin, using multiples of 5 for steps in future increases of legal tender monetary value as the price of silver continues to rise. This facilitates public use of the coin.
The Chinese population will snap up these coins in enormous quantities. As they do so, they will initially be handing over 25 Yuan for each coin purchased.
One tonne of silver will serve to manufacture 321,510 coins. One thousand tonnes of silver will allow for the manufacture of 321,510,000 coins. For the population of China, this will be merely the first appetizer. The population of China will gobble up many thousands of tonnes of silver for its savings.
Each 1,000 tonnes of silver that is monetized, at 25 Yuan per coin, will initially withdraw 8.04 billion Yuan from circulation.
The silver coins that go into circulation will be money, but will hardly be used for purchases. It will be difficult to find these coins, as they will all be treasured up by the Chinese population. Their velocity of circulation will be close to zero and thus they will have no inflationary effect upon the economy. Paper Yuan are withdrawn and replaced with silver money which goes into savings; this is a correct way to fight inflation.
Saving these coins will amount to voluntary austerity for the Chinese. Saving is the postponement of consumption. Voluntary austerity is always more effective and sounder from an economic point of view than the forced savings beloved of Statists, who have dictated taxes and scarcity for consumer goods so that the Statists can build factories.
The monetization of a silver coin will be a free-market decision that prompts people to save, spontaneously, of their own accord, and which does not require raising interest rates to draw the people’s money out of the economy into savings.
When the Chinese begin to withdraw silver from the world markets, in order to supply the vast appetite for silver savings of the Chinese, the price of silver will climb to unsuspected heights. We can easily visualize a price four times higher than the present high price: $100 Dollars an ounce.
At 100 Yuan per 1/10 oz. – the initial price calculated above, times four – the Chinese Central Bank would be withdrawing about 32 billion Yuan from circulation with each 1,000 tonnes of monetized silver coin placed in the hands of the Chinese people.
Silver is sold on the world markets, for dollars. At $100 dollars/oz., the Central Bank would be able to transform part of its vast dollar and euro reserves into silver at $3,125,100 dollars per tonne. One thousand tonnes would require $3.1 billion dollars. A drop in the bucket as far as Chinese C.B. reserves are concerned, but every little bit helps, considering that Chinese reserves are not actually worth a Chinese firecracker and that sooner or later, China will have to take a gigantic bath when this fact is recognized.
What about the impact of $100 silver on the price of gold?
We think that the ratios of the past and of the present will disappear. Gold will not necessarily rise four times in price, to retain the same ratio with silver, at its new price of $100 dollars / oz. The silver ratio to gold has been as high as 100 to 1, and lately has been around 50 to 1. The silver ratio to gold can continue to fall towards the old ratio of 16 to 1. If China persists in purchasing world silver, the price of silver might far exceed $100 dollars per ounce and become increasingly effective in stemming inflation as higher prices for the silver coin draw off greater amounts of paper money from the economy.
Quite apart from the effect of sopping up quantities of Yuan at present in circulation in China, monetizing the silver coin for the use of Chinese in their savings would have a salutary effect upon society in China.
Silver as money gets masses of people to think, not of the present, but of the future, and to focus on their long-term objectives as they accumulate savings in real money. It has a binding effect upon society.
Tranquility, or peace of mind, is one of the great Confucian philosophical values of the Chinese and solid savings in real money are a great tranquilizer. It seems to us, that more tranquility in a frenzied Chinese society would be of benefit to China.
The world is seeking a new paradigm in money. The Keynesians and inflationists and Statists have had their day, and they have fudged it. The world’s monetary system is in the initial stage of breakdown. Confidence in fiat money is evaporating. The trend is in place and there is nothing to stop it. The time for real money has arrived, and China can lead the way by monetizing silver into small coins which can be used as money.
Perhaps silver will open the way to a further, more far-reaching reform for gold in the International Monetary Process; for what the world has at present is not a System, but only a Process – of meltdown.
Posted by
FND Borong
at
10:54 PM
Abu Bakr ibn Abi Maryam reported that he heard the Messenger of Allah, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, say: "A time is certainly coming over mankind in which there will be nothing [left] which will be of use save a dinar and a dirham." (The Musnad of Imam Ahmad ibn Hanbal)
History of the Dinar & Dirham
In the beginning the Muslims used gold and silver by weight and the dinar and dirhams that they used were made by the Persians.
The first dated coins that can be assigned to the Muslims are copies of silver dirhams of the Sassanian Yezdigird III, struck during the Khalifate of Uthman, radiy'allahu anhu. These coins differ from the original ones in that an Arabic inscription is found in the obverse margins, normally reading "in the Name of Allah". Since then the writing in Arabic of the Name of Allah and parts of Qur'an on the coins became a custom in all mintings made by Muslims.
Under what was known as the coin standard of the Khalif Umar Ibn al-Khattab, the weight of 10 dirhams was equivalent to 7 dinars (mithqals).
In the year 75 (695 CE) the Khalifah Abdalmalik ordered Al-Hajjaj to mint the first dirhams, thus he established officially the standard of Umar Ibn al-Khattab. In the next year he ordered the dirhams to be minted in all the regions of the Dar al-Islam. He ordered that the coins be stamped with the sentence: "Allah is Unique, Allah is Eternal". He ordered the removal of human figures and animals from the coins and that they be replaced with letters.
This command was then carried on throughout all the history of Islam. The dinar and the dirham were both round, and the writing was stamped in concentric circles. Typically on one side it was written the "tahlil" and the "tahmid", that is, "la ilaha ill'Allah" and "alhamdulillah"; and on the other side was written the name of the Amir and the date. Later on it became common to introduce the blessings on the Prophet, salla'llahu alayhi wa sallam, and sometimes, ayats of the Qur'an.
Gold and silver coins remained official currency until the fall of the Khalifate. Since then, dozens of different paper currencies were made in each of the new postcolonial national states created from the dismemberment of Dar al-Islam.
Allah says in the Qur'an:
And amongst the People of the Book there are those who, if you were to entrust them with a treasure (qintar), he would return it to you. And amongst them is he who, if you were to entrust him with a dinar would not return it to you, unless you kept standing over him. Qur'an (3,75)
Qadi Abu Bakr Ibn al-Arabi, the greatest authority on Qur'anic Law wrote in his famous "Ahkam al-Qur'an" about this ayat:
"The benefit that can be taken from this is the prohibition of entrusting the People of the Book with goods".
Qadi Abu Bakr said: "The question concerning entrusting property is legislated by the text of Qur'an." This means that the ayat is a legal judgement of absolute validity and of the greatest importance to the deen.
Entrusting wealth to non-Muslims is not allowed, but furthermore, taking a non-Muslim as a partner outside Dar al-Islam (where we stand over them) is extremely restricted, because they might cheat or might use our wealth in forbidden transactions.
Since paper-money is a promise of payment, can it be permitted to trust the issuers while they hold the payment (our property) outside our jurisdiction? History has also demonstrated repeatedly that paper money has been a permanent instrument of default and cheating the Muslims. In addition, Islamic Law does not permit the use of a promise of payment as a medium of exchange.
What are the Dinar & Dirham?
The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold equivalent to 4.25 grams.The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 2.975 grams.
According to Islamic Law...
The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold (917.) equivalent to 4.25 grams.
The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 3.0 grams.
Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."
"The Revelation undertook to mention them and attached many judgements to them, for example zakat, marriage, and hudud, etc., therefore within the Revelation they have to have a reality and specific measure for assessment [of zakat, etc.] upon which its judgements may be based rather than on the non-shari'i [other coins].
Know that there is consensus [ijma] since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari'ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals [weight of the dinar] of gold. . . The weight of a mithqal of gold is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven-tenths of it is fifty and two-fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus." Ibn Khaldun, Al-Muqaddimah
How are the Islamic dinar used?
1.- The Islamic Dinar can be used to save because they are wealth in themselves.
2.- They are used to pay zakat and dowry as they are requisite within Islamic Law.
3.- They are used to buy and sell since they are a legitimate medium of exchange.
Posted by
FND Borong
at
3:00 AM
Bismillah irrahman irrahim
Regarding the matter of the Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham and Legal Tender in Malaysia
The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham known as Shariah currency or Shariah coins in the Fiqh are not legal tender. The Shariah currency has no relation to present fiat currencies on many accounts and should not be legally or practically be compared or treated as the same. The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham relates to religious matters, most important of which is the matter of payment of Zakat, rather than constitutional matters. Its introduction can only occurred on voluntary basis since freedom is a command from Allah in all commercial transactions including the acceptance of money. Its usage has been throughout history open to Muslim and non-Muslims alike.
All Praise is due to Allah, the most Compassionate, the most Merciful, the Lord of all the worlds, the King of the Day of Judgment, Who has gathered all knowledge in His Essence and Who is the Creator of all knowledge for eternity. All peace and blessings be upon His beloved Prophet, Muhammad, who was not taught by man but by Him, He was the last and most honored Prophet, the last in the chain of prophethood that was brought to this world and has guided us to the right path. May abundant peace and blessing be upon his Family and his Companions, who were chosen among the good and benevolent.
In relation to the present concern of the people regarding the Launching of the Shariah currency in the State of Kelantan on the last 2nd of Ramadhan 1431, as a witness of the momentous ceremony of the Launching in the city of Kota Bharu and as Shariah Counselor of World Islamic Mint, I would like to state in a manner of clarification and support to this initiative the following:
1.- The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham are not legal tender. Legal tender or forced tender is an offered payment that, by law, cannot be refused in settlement of a debt, and have the debt remain in force. Personal cheques, credit cards, debit cards and similar non-cash methods of payment are not legal tender only the notes and coins of Malaysia are Legal Tender. The issuing of Legal Tender is the exclusive prerogative of the Federal Government and the Government of Kelantan never had nor has the intention to issue Legal Tender as that is legally impossible.
2.- The Dinar and the Dirham are known in the fiqh (see [a] Muqaddimah of ibn Khaldun) as the “Shariah currency”or “Shariah coins”. The term “Shariah coins” is specific to the Dinar and Dirham and is not applicable to any other coin made in gold, silver or any other material. Any other coin is known as “non-shari’i” (ibn Khaldun).
3.-Properly speaking the term “alternative currency” is not applicable to the Shariah coins or currency because the term “Shariah coins” is specific to the Dinar and Dirham and therefore is not alternative to any other coins or currency (non shari’i). It stands on its own without alternative. The use of the expression “alternative currency” can only be used if proper explanation is given in regards to the fundamental differences that exist in relation to the legal tender currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit. The Malaysian Ringgit is an entirely different legal concept and has different functions. The Malaysian Ringgit is not based on a commodity (in Arabic ‘ayn, meaning tangible merchandise) like the Dinar and Dirham, the Malaysian Ringgit a promissory note (in Arabic dayn, meaning debt or liability) with no intrinsic value (its value as ‘ayn/tangible merchandise is the value of the paper close to zero) but with a fiat value which established by the compulsion law of the Federal Government through the Law of Legal Tender and it can change from time to time. On the other hand, the value of the Dinar and Dirham depends entirely on the market value of the commodity (gold and silver) on which it is manufactured, just like a kilo of rice depends on the value of rice. This difference in important in religious terms, for example, zakat which is a legal obligation of the Shariah has to be paid in ‘ayn but cannot be paid in dayn. (see [b] Al-Kasani). Muslims should, if having the choice(if no choice is given or no ‘ayn is available then darurah, that is exceptionality, is temporarily applicable), pay with ‘ayn rather than dayn.
5.- In linguistic sense, the Dinar and Dirham are not face values, but names that indicate specific weights. The Dinar is a specific weight of 4.25 grams and it is also known as mithqal in Arabic. The Dirham is a specific weight of 2.975 grams or 7/10 of the mithqal. In a way they are legally the same as saying “1kg of rice”. Therefore they are specific weights of commodity (gold and silver) which are mentioned in Qur’an and in many aspects of the Shariah regarding zakat and legal judgments; and thus they cannot be altered in their weight.
6.- In history, the Shariah coins has never been legal tender. In the practice of the early Muslim community the Shariah coins were not only currency used as means of payment. Barley, dates or salt were also used as means of payment and therefore no exclusive right was given to the Shariah coins. The reason for this “freedom to choose the medium of exchange” is that money is considered a part of trading it is regulated under the same Qur’anic injunction that regulates trade: “tijaratun ‘aan taradim minkum”, the meaning of which is “trade according to mutual consent”. “Mutual consent” excludes the idea of compulsion or monopoly in regards to trading. (see [c] Tafsir al-Jalalayn). This is another reason why the Dinar and Dirham are not legal tender and have never been legal tender. Freedom to choose the medium of exchange is a fundamental right granted by Allah to Muslims and non-Muslims alike. The use of the Shariah currency is therefore inclusive of non-Muslims.
7.-The term “currency” is commonly understood as legal tender or as fiat money that carries a face value. Since the “Shariah coins” are not legal tender and do not have a face value the” Shariah coins” should be better understood as a commodity rather than as “currency” in the common use of the term. Regarding current common practices, the use of the “Shariah coins” belongs to the category of barter, that is, the mutual exchange of products and services. It is arguable that in the past, before the introduction of legal tender laws, transactions made with gold and silver were consider normal transactions and the term barter was applicable to all other transactions. Therefore the use of the term “Shariah currency” should be understood with the limitations explained above and in consideration to the historical practice of the Muslims as it is relevant in the Islamic Jurisprudence.
8.- Until very recently in history “paper currencies” were defined as promissory notes in terms of gold and silver. In that sense they represented an ‘amanah’ (trusting wealth to someone who will keep it for you until you demand it) that is an obligation to pay on demand a certain amount of gold and silver. We know from history that this obligation was often not fulfilled and eventually the governments of the world decided gradually to eliminate the obligation to pay in specie altogether. The closest case of the default is the US dollar and its unilateral decision to break their “Bretton Woods Agreement”. This concept of ‘broken amanah’ is known in the Qur’an and carries legal implications as to the prohibition to accept amanah from non-Muslims unless they live under Muslim rule so that they can be obliged to pay their contractual obligations (see [d] Qadi Abu Bakr ibn al-Arabi).
This legal injunction, which in theory implies the prohibition to accept British pounds, US dollars, etc. ( or any other currency backed by them), has been abrogated long ago since the colonial days by new laws that consider that this legal injunction is no longer applicable. Under the inspiration of the colonial legal systems, the constitutional Law of all Muslim countries including Malaysia grants the right to accept foreign promissory notes from non-Muslim countries (such as USD) to their own Central Bank (Bank Negara) as a reserve value for their own fiat currency. Because of this many Muslims (and non-Muslims) still mistakenly belief that their own fiat currency is backed by gold and silver when in fact no legal tender in the world is fully backed by specie anymore. The gold dinar and silver dirham are commodities and therefore they are not an ‘amanah: they are a tangible commodity (‘ayn), that is, when you pay with them, you hand over a certain amount of gold and silver and therefore they do not require to be backed by any other asset or authority other than itself. This is another reason why the Shariah currency cannot be compared or considered an alternative to “paper currencies”.
9.- Legal Tender is often a misunderstood concept. Coins and banknotes do not need to be ‘legal tender’ in order to be used as money to buy and perform other transactions for which money is intended. Legal tender must be accepted to settle a money debt. For example, US federal law does not restrict private businesses, persons or organisations in what methods of payment they choose to accept or refuse. Businesses are therefore free to insist on payment by credit card, for example, or to refuse larger denomination banknotes. In Canada for example, only Canadian dollar banknotes issued by the Bank of Canada are legal tender; however, commercial transactions may legally be settled in any manner agreed by the parties involved. A significant amount of business in Canada is transacted in United States dollars, despite United States currency not being legal tender. Legal tender can be refused unless or until a person is in debt, therefore vending machines and transport staff do not have to accept the largest denomination of banknote for a single bus fare or bar of chocolate, and even shopkeepers can reject large banknotes. However, restaurants that do not collect money until after a meal is served (a debt has been created) would have to accept any legal tender. The right of a trader to refuse to do business with any person means a purchaser cannot demand to make a purchase, and so declaring a legal tender other than for debts would be redundant.
10.- The minting of the Dinar and Dirham is a known practice of the Muslims from the early days of Islam. The first dated coins that can be assigned to the Muslims are copies of silver dirhams of the Sasanian Yezdigird III, struck during the Khalifate of Uthman, radiallahu anhu. These coins differ from the original ones in that an Arabic inscription is found in the obverse margins, normally reading “in the name of Allah”. Since then the writing in Arabic of the name of Allah and parts of Qur’an on the coins became a custom in all minting made by Muslims. In the year 75 (695) the Khalif Abdalmalik ordered Al-Haddjadj to mint the first dirhams, officially establishing the standard of Umar ibn al-Khattab, radiallahu anhu: 7/10 of the mithqal. The next year he ordered the dirhams to be minted in all the regions of the Dar al-Islam. He ordered the coins to be stamped with the sentence: “Allahu Ahad, Allahu Samad”. The minting of the coins is considered an obligation of the Sultan that needs to be followed (see [e] al-Qurtubi).
And Victory belongs to Allah. In Him we trust and praise belong to the Lord of the worlds and peace and blessings on His Messenger.
The slave of Allah, Hajj Abdalhasib Castineira, in Kuala Lumpur, on the 5th of Ramadhan, 1431.
NOTES
A] Imam Abu Zayd Ibn Khaldun (d. 1406)
“The Revelation undertook to mention them and attached many judgments to them, for example zakat, marriage, and hudud. Therefore within the Revelation they have to have a reality and specific measure for assessment (of zakat, etc.) upon which its judgments may be based rather than on the non-shari’i (other coins).
Know that there is a consensus (ijma) since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari’ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals (weight of the dinar) of gold… The weight of a mithqal is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven tenths of it is fifty and two fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus.”
“Al-Muqaddimah”
B] Imam Abu Bakr al-Kasani ( d.1191)
“If the property on which zakat fell due is dayn, as distinguished from ‘ayn, its zakat may be settled in terms of ‘ayn wealth. Thus a person having a claim of two hundred dirhams on which zakat is due, may give, in settlement of the same, five dirhams in cash, because dayn as compared with ‘ayn is defective (naqis) and the ‘ayn is complete (kamil), and a settlement of the defective in terms of the complete is valid. On the contrary, the settlement of the complete ‘ayn in terms of the defective (dayn) is not valid, and therefore, the zakat debt is not discharged if a person wants to pay the zakat of two hundred dirhams which he possesses (i.e. ‘ayn) in terms of the five dirhams which a poor person owes him (i.e. dayn); namely, by absolving him from the debt intending it for his own zakat debt on the two hundred dirhams.”
“Bada’i` al-Sana’i”
C] Shaykh Jalaluddin al-Mahalli & Shaykh Jalaluddin al-Suyuti
Allah says in the Qur’an (4, 29):
{ يَٰأَيُّهَا ٱلَّذِينَ آمَنُواْ لاَ تَأْكُلُوۤاْ أَمْوَٰلَكُمْ بَيْنَكُمْ بِٱلْبَٰطِلِ إِلاَّ أَن تَكُونَ تِجَٰرَةً عَن تَرَاضٍ مِّنْكُمْ وَلاَ تَقْتُلُوۤاْ أَنْفُسَكُمْ إِنَّ ٱللَّهَ كَانَ بِكُمْ رَحِيماً }
Tafsir:
“O you who believe, consume not your goods between you wrongly, unlawfully according to the Law, through usury or usurpation, except it be trading (tijāratan, also read tijāratun), so that the goods be from trade effected, through mutual agreement, through mutual good-will: such [goods] you may consume. And kill not yourselves, by committing what leads towards destruction on account of some affiliation, be it in this world or the Hereafter. Surely God is ever Merciful to you, when He forbids you such things.”
“Tafsir al-Jalalayn”
D] Qadi Abu Bakr Ibn al Arabi (d. 1148)
Allah says in the Qur’an (3:75):
“And amongst the People of the Book there are those who, if you were to entrust them with a treasure (qintar), he would return it to you. And amongst them is he who, if you were to entrust him with a dinar would not return it to you, unless you kept standing over him. “
Tafsir:
“the benefit that can be taken from this is the prohibition of entrusting (amanah) the People of the Book with goods. The question concerning entrusting property is legislated by the text of Qur’an.”
“Ahkam al-Qur’an”
E] Imam Abu Abdallah Al-Qurtubi (d. 1273)
Allah says in the Qur’an (4:59):
“O you who believe! Obey Allah and obey the Messenger and those in command among you..”
Tafsir:
“The ayat is an order to obey the Sultan in respect to seven obligations: the minting of the dinar and the dirham, fixing weights and measure, legal judgments, Hajj, Jumu’ah, the two Eids and Jihad.”
“Al-Jami’ li-Ahkam al-Qur’an”
Posted by
FND Borong
at
12:22 AM
Harga barangan semakin meningkat? Adakah ini sebab sebenarnya atau nilai duit yang semakin susut?
Kalau difikirkan bukan sekadar sistem perbankan itu adanya riba, malahan sistem matawang itu sendiri asasnya adalah riba.
Inilah tanda-tanda akhir zaman yang dijelaskan oleh Rasulullah SAW di hadis yang diriwayatkan oleh Abu Hurairah r.a. berkata, Rasulullah SAW. bersabda, "Akan tiba suatu zaman, tidak ada seorang juga pun kecuali ia terlibat dalam memakan harta riba. Kalau ia tidak memakan secara langsung, ia akan terkena juga debu-debunya". Riwayat Ibnu Majah
Apakah tindakan kita dalam hal ini? Adakah sekarang menerima sahaja tanpa melakukan apa-apa usaha?
Allah berfirman di dalam Surah Al Baqarah ayat 275
"Orang-orang yang memakan (mengambil) riba itu tidak dapat berdiri betul melainkan seperti berdirinya orang yang dirasuk Syaitan dengan terhuyung-hayang kerana sentuhan (Syaitan) itu. Yang demikian ialah disebabkan mereka mengatakan: Bahawa sesungguhnya berniaga itu sama sahaja seperti riba. Padahal Allah telah menghalalkan berjual beli (berniaga) dan mengharamkan riba. Oleh itu sesiapa yang telah sampai kepadanya peringatan (larangan) dari Tuhannya lalu dia berhenti (dari mengambil riba), maka apa yang telah diambilnya dahulu (sebelum pengharaman itu) adalah menjadi haknya dan perkaranya terserahlah kepada Allah dan sesiapa yang mengulangi lagi (perbuatan mengambil riba itu) maka mereka itulah ahli Neraka, mereka kekal di dalamnya."
Perjalanan masih jauh untuk mengembalikan keseluruhan sistem kewangan yang tidak berasaskan riba. Walau bagaimana jalankan tangungjawab kita dalam mengembalikan kefahaman sahabat handai kita, kaum keluarga kita kepada sistem matawang alternatif yakni emas dan perak / dinar & dirham. Matawang yang tidak ada istilah INFLASI. Satu dirham di zaman Rasulullah SAW dapat membeli seekor ayam, samalah sekarang satu dirham (RM18) masih dapat membeli seekor ayam. Di zaman itu, satu dinar dapat membeli seekor kamping dewasa, di zaman sekarang pun satu dinar (RM630) masih dapat membeli seekor kamping dewasa.
Kepada yang berminat untuk memahami secara lebih lanjut tentang sistem matawang kertas ini, silalah lihat dokumentari dibawah ini :-
Untuk perbincangan dan bertukar-tukar pandangan sila hubungi saya seperti email dibawah.
akhukum fil Islam
Muhammad
010-324 2055
borongemas@gmail.com
Posted by
FND Borong
at
6:46 PM
Saya mengucapkan Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Adha kepada semua muslimat dan muslimat. Semoga dengan datangnya Aidil Adha ini akan menambahkan lagi ketakwaan kita kepada Allah. Sematkan sifat rasa ingin berkorban & meningkatkan ketaatan kepada Allah.
Posted by
FND Borong
at
11:26 PM
Changing Your Perspective and Profiting
Investing fascinates me because people can have the exact same data and come to completely different conclusions. We can look at the same charts and trade in different directions. Ultimately trading is a zero sum game: when one person loses 50% on the short side, another person makes 50% on the long side. Based on the profits being made on the long side in gold, I can tell you for a fact that portfolios are being decimated on the short side. That being said, one of the things that determines your profitability as an investor is your perspective. Having the write perspective means everything.
I wasn’t sure if it was even worth refuting. Anyway, the author of the article succinctly summed up the argument of gold permabears in this paragraph:
Certainly there are reasons to own gold in a diversified portfolio. Yet gold isn’t like a stock or a bond. It offers no income, no dividend, no earnings. It is considered a store of value, an alternative currency that’s safe beyond reproach, but it is not cash in the bank, or even the mattress. Gold has no untapped intrinsic value; it is worth only what people are willing to pay for it. And lately, many people have been only too willing.I don’t want to waste too much time refuting arguments I have already dismantled in the past. But let me focus on this paragraph because it had me shaking my head in disbelief. The author says that gold is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. Hmm that’s interesting, but isn’t every asset worth what people are willing to pay for it? I’m pretty confused here. So if oil is trading at $85 right now, is it really worth some other price in some alternate universe? People are willing to pay much less for real estate than they were 5 years ago. Based on the author’s logic, real estate may actually be in a stealth bull market and we may not even realize it! The no income, no earnings, and no dividend argument is equally asinine. Anyone invested in gold stocks has made a killing; in fact, the author implies as much when he quotes a permabear later in the article who says that gold is being extracted for $400-$450, but being sold for $1400. How this can be turned into a bearish argument is anybody’s guess, but the author does so. He basically says that the price of gold has far surpassed the cost of production. Perhaps this argument would be valid if there were a limitless supply of gold, but everyone knows there isn’t. Like I’ve said numerous times, I often question the intelligence of gold permabears.
Arguments along the lines of the aforementioned are common, but in my experience, the majority of permabears are influenced by charts and price action. Hence I have included a chart of gold with the thinking of permabears in brackets.
Now here’s a different perspective, and a more profitable one at that.
Sometimes my perspectives are wrong as well. You all saw this recently with my view that stocks were set to correct at about 1180. I put in some shorts as a preliminary position, but when the tape told me we were going higher, I started covering. I had no problem in shifting my stance from “short the rallies” to “buy the dips”: I am not going to let my portfolio suffer because I refuse to admit I am wrong. In fact, I am probably right only 60-65% of the time. The difference between me and those who lose money consistently is that when I am wrong, my losses are minimal, but when I am right, my gains are substantial. The only way to do this on a consistent basis is by having a flexible mind that is willing to change with the times.
Fuzzy Thinking= Skewed Perspective
One of the hardest things to do as a grown adult is to throw your preconceptions out the door and approach new subjects as if you were a baby. 95% of people think they know more about the world than they actually do. You can be sure you will be met with intense resistance whenever you mention a new way of thinking about the world. Most people will dismiss unconventional thinking without taking the time to explore its validity. This is one of the common traits of investors that leaves me convinced a small portion of the investing population will always get the majority of the profits.
No theory can be dismissed offhand until it has been exposed to the fire. I made it a point early on in my education in economics to read and try to understand all perspectives. What resulted was a hybrid view of economics that has served me well. I am not going to be an apologist for any one “school” of Economics, because they all have flaws. A lot of what I say may sound like jibberish, and I understand that, but as events unfold, you are starting to see the merits of plain old objective thinking.
That being said, I am regularly inundated with some truly ludicrous arguments. My biggest concern at the present time is the bond bubble, so I’ll focus on arguments to the contrary. One argument I’ve heard several times is that the Fed is prepared to intervene in the bond market and hold to maturity. As long as the Fed is willing to create demand and hold their positions, everything will be fine. To me, this is an example of fuzzy thinking. The geniuses at Long Term Capital Management thought the same. Sure the LTCM portfolio would have done fine in the theoretical “long-run” provided there were no others players in the market and short-term margin and liquidity concerns were no longer valid, but unfortunately, we live in something called the real world. The Fed is no different from anyone else in that they cannot create trends, they can only exaggerate them. Think the housing bubble. The fundamentals supporting the bull market in housing were valid: favorable demographics, falling interest rates, foreign capital flows, etc. Then Wall Street conjured up exotic securities out of exotic securities to the point that it was dubious whether we could even call these creations assets. Again, Wall Street exacerbated the trend, it didn’t create it. Remember, loan originations peaked right when the bubble was about to pop. The same pattern is unfolding in U.S. government bonds.
Most investors see things only from a domestic perspective, which leaves them with enormous blind spots. How can gold prices go up when real estate in America is falling? How can U.S. bonds collapse if the Fed is buying securities? People hate to admit it, but so many think on a very elementary level. I can’t get into everything now, but I promise I will explain my thoughts at a future time. We must all keep an eye on the bond market- it will sound the horn when a crisis is about to approach.
Source: http://expectedreturnsblog.com/
Posted by
FND Borong
at
6:00 AM

Assalamualaikum,
Satu artikel menarik untuk dikongsikan bersama dari Laman Web IbnYusof :-
Pengalaman untuk turut serta dalam Seminar Dinar Emas 2009 di Universiti Malaya anjuran PMKUM pada Sabtu, 21 Februari lepas adalah pengalaman yang sangat bermakna buat diri saya. Apatah lagi seminar ini menghimpunkan tokoh-tokoh besar dalam perjuangan mengembalikan Dinar dan Dirham sebagai matawang Islam. Nama seperti Associate Professor Dr Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Pn Nik Mahani Mohamad, Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo dan YB Datuk Paduka Haji Husam Musa adalah antara nama rujukan dalam perjuangan ini. Bukan senang untuk mendengar tiga tokoh ini dihimpunkan dalam satu seminar.
Saya mengkaji tentang Dinar dan Dirham sejak dua tahun lalu ketika terlibat sama dalam pembentangan tugasan subjek Intermediate Macroeconomics yang diberikan oleh Prof. Ruzita perihal cadangan atau solusi kepada kes Exchange Rate dari keratan akhbar yang dipilih. Cuma sahaja jika dahulu agak ‘taksub’ dalam perjuangan Dinar dan Dirham, kini saya merasakan perkara ini wajar dilihat secara objektif setelah mengkaji dan membaca dengan lebih mendalam. Dan ini bukan bermaksud saya menentang perjuangan yang dibawa dinarist (golongan yang memperjuangkan slogan kembali kepada matawang Dinar), malah 30% asset saya kini adalah dalam bentuk emas. Atas dasar itu saya menghadiri seminar ini untuk mendengar sendiri ucapan perintis perjuangan Dinar dan Dirham yakni Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo.
Slot PertamaSesi pertama menggabungkan dua tokoh yang tidak asing pada saya,memandangkan Prof. Kameel adalah pensyarah UIA dan saya juga mengikuti kesemua tulisan provokatif terhadap perbankan Islam oleh Pn Nik Mahani Mohamad dalam ruangan Millenia Muslim. Pembentangan Associate Professor Dr Ahamed Kameel Mydin lebih mendalam dan bersifat ilmiah, beliau menggunakan slide yang sama ketika pembentangan tajuk “Economic Crisis and the impact towards Muslim Countries” di UIA dua minggu sebelumnya. Slide pembentangan Pn Nik Mahani Mohamad memang seperti tulisan-tulisan beliau yang mana ianya penuh provokasi, akan tetapi pembentangan beliau sungguh sopan dan bersahaja.
Semasa sesi soal jawab, saya sempat mengajukan soalan kepada kedua-dua tokoh tersebut. Soalan saya kepada Prof Kameel adalah merujuk kepada persoalan yang diajukan kepada dinarist oleh Prof. Zubair Hasan dalam kertas kerja beliau “Ensuring Exchange Rates Stability: Is Returning To Gold (dinar) Is Possible?”. Kertas kerja ini mempersoalkan banyak isu dan fakta dalam buku Prof. Kameel, “The Theft of Nations” dan “The Islamic Gold Dinar”. Kertas kerja ini antara yang membuatkan saya berminat untuk melihat perjuangan Dinar dan Dirham ini dalam perspektif yang berbeza. Atas dasar itu saya cuba mengambil peluang ini untuk mengajukan persoalan bagi merungkai kemusykilan yang ada. Dalam banyak-banyak soalan saya hanya memilih untuk menyoal apakah emas atau dinar yang cuba dijadikan standard peringkat antarabangsa? Dan apakah dinar emas ini akan digunakan dalam bilateral agreement? Dan antara dua soalan yang saya ajukan Prof. Kameel hanya menjawab soalan pertama yang mana beliau menyatakan bahawa perbezaan emas dan dinar ialah yang mana dinar adalah kayu ukur yang digunakan sebagai mata wang manakala emas adalah medium yang digunakan. Saya berpuas
Adapun soalan yang saya ajukan kepada Pn Nik Mahani Mohamad adalah berdasarkan slide beliau yang membuatkan saya lebih musykil. Beliau menyatakan “Jangan salahkan ulama’- mereka juga TIDAK FAHAM!-Sekularisma” yang kemudiannya disusuli dengan hadith yang mana Rasulullah Shallallahu ‘alaihi wa sallam bersabda.
“Emas dijual dengan emas, perak dengan perak, gandum dengan gandum, jelai dengan jelai, kurma dengan kurma, garam dengan garam, semisal dengan semisal, dalam jumlah yang sama dan tunai, tangan dengan tangan. Dan jika jenis-jenis ini berbeda, maka juallah sekehendak hati kalian, jika dilakukan serta diserahkan seketika” [Diriwayatkan oleh Muslim dari hadith Ubadah bin Ash-Shamit Radhiyallahu ‘anhu]
Apa yang kami pelajari sebagai 6 barangan ribawi ini disusuli dengan slogan “JENIS WANG DLM SYARAK HANYALAH 6 JENIS INI”. Walaupun pernah terbaca perkara sedemikian dalam tulisan-tulisan Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo dan Syaikh Imran Hussain, tetapi ianya tidaklah se’provokatif’ sebegini. Maka saya bangun dan mempersoalkan apakah boleh untuk kita mengambil makna hadith ini secara zahir? Saya teringat ketika Dr. Ugi Suharto mula mengajar kami hadith ini berserta dengan pandangan para ulama’ berkenaan dengannya. Malah penjelasan yang lebih mendalam jika merujuk kepada tulisan Prof. Aslam yang bertajuk “Must Money Be Limited to Only Gold and Silver?: A Survey of Fiqhi Opinions and Some Implications”. Tulisan beliau yang komprehensif ini wajar dibaca oleh para pejuang Dinar dan Dirham kerana ia menghimpunkan pandangan para ulama’, para fuqaha’ atas perbezaan pandangan tentang apakah mata wang islam itu hanya terhad kepada Dinar dan Dirham.
Jawapan yang saya dapat daripada Pn Nik Mahani Mohamad agak mengecewakan apabila beliau hanya menyatakan beliau adalah produk kapitalis dan tidak mahir dalam bidang hadith. Maka saya musykil bagaimana beliau berani menggunakan hadith itu sebagai hujah, saya cuba bersangka baik bahawa barangkali beliau mengambil pandangan ulama’ silam dalam hal ini apabila beliau menyatakan beliau mengambil pandangan salah seorang ulama’. Prof. Aslam dalam kertas kerja tersebut menghimpunkan nama-nama para ulama’ yang menghadkan mata wang bersandarkan emas dan perak seperti Abu Hanifah, Abu Yusuf, Ibn Nafi’, al-Nadwi, Syaikh ‘Alish atau ulama’ Syafi’iyyah seperti Al-Nawawi,Al-Suyuti atau Al-Maqrizi. Jika tidakpun mungkin pandangan ulama’ kontemperer seperti Syaikh Ahmad al-Khatib, ,Syaikh Abd Rahman Al-Sa’di, dan Ibn Badran.
Adapun para ulama’ yang tidak menghadkan mata wang Islam hanya pada Dinar dan Dirham juga bukan calang-calang, antara tokohnya ialah Imam Shyabani, Al-Hattab, Al-Wansharisi, Ibn Taimiyyah, Ibn Qayyim, Laith Ibn Sa’ad dan lain-lain. Manakala ulama’ kontemperor yang mengambil pandangan yang sama pula adalah Syaikh Yusof Qardhawi, Syaikh Muhammad Taqi’ Usmani, dan Abd Allah Sulayman Al-Mani. Apapun saya masih musykil dengan pernyataan ‘berani mati’ beliau dengan pernyataan “JENIS WANG DLM SYARAK HANYALAH 6 JENIS INI”. Hal ini adalah kerana ulama’ mazhab Zahiri yakni Ibn Hazm juga tidak mengambil pandangan zahir hadith tersebut bahawa 6 jenis barangan itu sahaja yang boleh dijadikan sebagai wang. Malah soalan yang tidak sempat saya persoalkan ialah apakah mata wang ini adalah satu perkara tauqifiyyah? Bukankah ianya adalah satu bentuk muamalah yang berlandaskan prinsip ibahah?
Walaubagaimanapun, jawapan ketiga-tiga penceramah lain lebih konsisten yang mana mereka bersepakat kerana apa sahaja komoditi yang menepati karekteristik mata wang boleh dijadikan wang. Hal ini disentuh oleh Professor Kameel sejurus selepas saya menyebut nama Prof. Aslam kerana Prof. Aslam adalah sahabat beliau dan barangkali beliau tahu kertas kerja yang saya maksudkan. Apa yang saya nampak daripada pernyataan mereka ini sangat bermakna, ternyata minda kita telah dijajah supaya tunduk kepada wang kertas atau lebih tepat wang fiat, walhal sistem ekonomi yang diguna pakai pada zaman dahulu lebih menjanjikan kestabilan ekonomi daripada kadar inflasi tanpa henti seperti yang dialami kini.
Slot Kedua
Sesi petang yang menggabungkan dua tokoh yakni Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo dan YB Datuk Paduka Haji Husam Musa lebih hangat dan bermanfaat. Ucapan Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo jelas menampakkan keyakinan beliau bahawa sistem ini akan berjaya. Beliau menyatakan sistem ini dengan slogan yang gah yakni “Towards political union of the Muslim nations.” Apa yang beliau perjuangkan adalah lebih berkisar perjuangan mengembalikan kebebasan, kebebasan untuk memilih apa jua bentuk medium of exchange. Beliau dengan lantang mengatakan ketidakyakinan beliau dalam sistem perbankan Islam sedia ada kerana Dinar emas adalah pengakhiran kepada perbankan atau lebih tepat perbankan Islam. Hal ini adalah kerana banklah yang memaksa kita menggunakan wang kertas yang mana nilainya turun hampir setiap saat. Saya melihat pandangan yang diutarakan oleh Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo sungguh optimistik.
YB Datuk Paduka Haji Husam Musa sangat bersahaja dalam penyampaian beliau tetapi sungguh menyakinkan. Slide pembentangan beliau hanya bertujuan untuk membuktikan bahawa penggunaan emas sebagai bentuk pelaburan dan juga sistem rezab bagi Bank Negara mampu membawa keuntungan. Beliau menunjukkan bukti apresiasi harga emas sejak pelancaran Emas Dinar Kelantan (EDK):-
Daripada harga di atas kita boleh lihat apresiasi sebanyak 68.75 %. Tahun 2007 menunjukkan peningkatan sebanyak 29.5 %, tahun 2008 menunjukkan peningkatan sebanyak 14.4 % dan setakat ini tahun 2009 peningkatan adalah sebanyak 11.07%. Maka hal yang sama boleh diaplikasi dalam contoh yang mana jika nilai rezab antarabangsa sekiranya disimpan dalam bentuk emas, Bank Negara mampu untuk mengalami peningkatan sebanyak RM188 billion hanya dengan menukar rezab antarabangsa pada tahun 2006 yang berjumlah RM291.4billion kepada emas. (Rujuk laman web YB Husam untuk penerangan lebih terperinci.)
Kesimpulan
Apa yang saya nampak daripada perjuangan Dinar dan Dirham ini ialah seperti mana yang diakui sendiri oleh Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo bahawa ianya mestilah berperingkat-peringkat. Untuk bangun pada keesokkan harinya dengan harapan semua manusia menggunakan Dinar dan Dirham adalah suatu perkara yang mustahil, perjuangan berperingkat yang dimaksudkan ialah dengan menuntut semula perjanjian Bretton Woods yang dahulunya dicabuli oleh Amerika apabila mengambil keputusan untuk mengeluarkan wang kertas tanpa bersandarkan kepada emas. Jika wang kertas yang digunakan untuk berniaga dengan Negara Islam di Timur Tengah dapat dipaksa supaya bersandarkan emas maka tidaklah harta Negara Islam di Timur Tengah didagang dengan hanya berhasilkan kertas yang asalnya tidak mempunyai nilai tetapi dikosmetikkan supaya ‘dipercayai’ nilainya.
Kekaburan umat Islam atas wang kertas Amerika yang tidak bernilai ini adalah satu penipuan
global apabila umat Islam ditipu hidup-hidup dengan membenarkan Amerika untuk mencetak wang mereka sewenang-wenangnya sekaligus membeli harta warisan umat islam dengan kertas kosong. Mereka mencetak berbillion-billion tanpa menyentuh sedikitpun simpanan emas mereka, malah mereka mencetak dan terus membeli emas untuk simpanan mereka menjadikan mereka penyimpan emas terbesar dunia sehingga 8,133.5 tan dan dengan peratus rezab sebanyak 77.3%. Seolah-olah kini hanya mereka yang sedang menipu umat Islam hidup-hidup sahaja yang sedar tentang kepentingan emas, kita umat Islam pula rela ditipu hidup-hidup untuk berdagang dengan mereka dengan wang kertas tanpa nilai.Saya merasakan perjuangan kembali kepada Dinar dan Dirham ini adalah matlamat jangka masa panjang yang perlu difahami dengan jelas. Apa yang Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo katakan dengan “Towards political union of the Muslim nations.” adalah satu bentuk Monetary Union walhal persidangan dan perbincangan dalam membentuk Islamic Common Market masih lagi berlansung dan tidak kesampaian. Prof. Mohamed Ariff merungkai cabaran-cabaran yang membantut penyatuan negara-negara Islam dalam kertas kerja beliau “Proliferation of Regional Groupings: Policy Options for the OIC” yang mana ianya sekaligus merungkai persoalan Tun Mahathir dalam ucapan beliau ketika Seminar on Gold Dinar pada tahun 2002 yang menyatakan tiada penyatuan di antara negara-negara Islam antara faktor perlaksaan “Kembali kepada Dinar Emas” ini gagal direalisasikan.
Maka usaha untuk merealisasikan Monetary Union di antara Negara-negara Islam adalah satu usaha yang memerlukan pengorbanan bukan sahaja dari para pemimpin Negara-negara Islam, kerana saya merasakan solusi praktikal yang Profesor Umar Ibrahim Vadillo sendiri simpulkan dalam buku beliau Fatwa on Banking adalah lebih releven, tidak lain tidak bukan ianya mesti bermula dengan diri kita sendiri.
Sumber : http://ibnyusof.blogspot.com/2009/02/kembalikan-mata-wang-islam-yang-sebenar.html
Posted by
FND Borong
at
8:05 PM
Fahamkan bagaimana matawang kertas diwujudkan kemudian fikir adalah ia sesuatu yang anda inginkan.
Mulakan langkah dengan memiliki dinar dan dirham. Matawang yang disebut di dalam Al-Quran
Berminat dengan dinar & dirham. Hubungi 010-324 2055 (Muhammad)
Posted by
FND Borong
at
8:31 PM
Interview bersama Dr. Umar Ibrahim Vadillo berkenaan matawang Islam Dinar & Dirham
Apa peranan kita ?
Berminat dengan Dinar & Dirham atau perlaburan emas dan perak? Hubungi 010-324 2055 (Muhammad)
Posted by
FND Borong
at
8:14 PM
Target for Silver
We see some confluence of targets at $32. Note that back in 1980 there was barely any trading in Silver from $25 to $33. In other words, when Silver crashed downwards, it fell quickly and then rallied back to $25. During the initial crash, it stabilized at $33. On the chart, one can see a very open space from $25 to $32.
Furthermore, $32 is roughly the 62% retracement of the major bear market from $50 down to $3. Also, if you take the difference between the resistance at $19.50 and the low at $8.40, you get nearly $31. The recent leg higher went from $18 to $25. A duplicate leg of $7 would take us to $31-$32 depending on where you start. There is quite the confluence of targets at $31-$32/oz.
In the chart below we show the standard deviations from the 10, 20 and 40 week moving averages.
Posted by
FND Borong
at
7:53 AM
Dapatkan Quarterly Gold Investment Digest from World Gold Council
Posted by
FND Borong
at
7:48 AM
Posted by
FND Borong
at
3:38 AM
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Posted by
FND Borong
at
7:25 AM
This is Why Silver is Going to Explode
Last month gold broke into new record territory – reaching an all-time high of $1,387 on October 14.A new record in nominal terms, that is. To top the previous high in adjusted dollars, gold will have to approximately double from there.
Silver, however, has barely made it halfway back to its prior nominal high of $49.45 an ounce, achieved on January 21, 1980. In order to break into new territory in inflation-adjusted dollars (using the same CPI calculation methodology used in 1980), silver would have to rise to over $250 an ounce – more than ten times where it is today.
Here are some other useful facts about silver:
Due to the fact that silver’s industrial applications result in destroying the stuff, there is currently a total of only 1,234,590,000 “investable” ounces of silver in aboveground supplies. At $21 per ounce, the total value of aboveground silver comes to only about $26 billion.
By contrast, because pretty much every ounce of gold ever mined still exists, there are a total of 4,585,620,000 “investable” ounces of gold in aboveground stocks. At $1,330 per ounce, that comes to $6 trillion worth.
Thus, the silver/gold ratio is currently about 63:1, yet the total value of all the investable gold on the planet is about 235 times that of silver.
For the record, the ratio of silver to gold in the earth’s crust is 17:1. That’s in the ballpark of the 15:1 average silver/gold price ratio that has held sway over the centuries.
Kicking off his presentation at our recent Gold & Resource Summit, Bob Quartermain, the powerhouse behind Silver Standard (SSO), stated that if the audience took nothing else away from his talk, it should be that the demand for silver well exceeds new mine supply, and has for some time.
For instance, in 2009 total silver demand topped 889 million ounces, outstripping new mine supplies of 710 million ounces. The difference was made up by scrap recycling.
Of course, the real pressure going forward is from investment demand, which has been a fraction of that for gold. If history is any guide, however, as gold becomes viewed as being too expensive for the “common man,” silver sales will soar.
The following chart from Quartermain’s presentation helps put things into perspective.
Furthermore, if you agree with our contention that the economic crisis will continue, and that China’s propped-up manufacturing sector will come under serious pressure, it’s also logical to assume that demand for industrial metals such as lead, zinc, and copper will fall. That’s important in the discussion of silver, because only 30% of silver’s production comes from primary producers (i.e., silver mines), with the balance produced only as a byproduct of other minerals.
Of the total new mine supply, fully 57% is associated with base metals production.
As it, too, has industrial applications, demand for silver from manufacturers will also falter, but given the existing deficit in supplies, the surge in investor demand, and silver’s growing use as a “green” metal (50 to 60 million ounces used up in solar energy applications in 2010 alone) and as an antibacterial agent, the overall supply/demand picture remains favorable.
The truly miniscule amount of silver available above ground and its relatively modest price gains over the course of the precious metals bull market so far are what set the stage for it to play a quick game of catch-up to gold in the months just ahead.
And when silver does a runner, the handful of pure play silver companies – producers and juniors that have identified large deposits – will do the equivalent of a moon shot.
Just a heads up on something to pay attention to, especially on days when the precious metals take a breather from their steady ascent.
—-
By David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research.
Posted by
FND Borong
at
5:37 PM









